Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4300c1e2536b67f0fade115171bdf027b34346f9776e34d6961a3e1127c3b9b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 41c | 998.54$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.33 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 980.92$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.64 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 56c | 425.79$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.76 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 59c | 384.27$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.48 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 365.04$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 272$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 44c | 262.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.9 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 257.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 30c | 255.1$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 62c | 251.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 237.09$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 76c | 211.17$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 49c | 175.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 142.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 141.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 58c | 120.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 106.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 99.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked No | 75c | 70.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 45.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 45.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 42.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 42.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 71c | 41.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 61c | 38.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 35c | 36.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 29c | 34.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 36c | 33.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 31.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 42c | 26.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 59c | 25.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked No | 61c | 20.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 20.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 20.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 64c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.