MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x431e19556255ff8f27f9c3c761cf8fc31770dae121fa45aef532af0941ba7d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Diamondbacks, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cardinals | 70c | 22,334$15,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,595.11 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Diamondbacks | 48c | 9,928$4,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,741.16 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks | 32c | 9,289$2,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,972.52 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Cardinals | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 41c | 3,492$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cardinals | 58c | 3,385$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.99 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18e…014abacked Diamondbacks | 44c | 2,127$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Diamondbacks | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,981$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.12 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Cardinals | 53c | 1,872$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.8 | 173 | 51.4%89 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Diamondbacks | 37c | 1,576$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.51 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals | 62c | 1,572$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.75 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals | 57c | 1,387$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.18 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Cardinals | 55c | 1,087$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.74 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,080$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.77 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…c3c2backed Cardinals | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Cardinals | 52c | 999.99$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.88 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Diamondbacks | 59c | 932.2$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 795.7$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.96 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Diamondbacks | 36c | 689.89$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Cardinals | 43c | 604.63$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.63 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Diamondbacks | 44c | 583.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.7 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…070fbacked Cardinals | 58c | 500$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Diamondbacks | 16c | 496.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cardinals | 53c | 448$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.56 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…818ebacked Cardinals | 48c | 350$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cardinals | 63c | 296$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Cardinals | 52c | 231.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Diamondbacks | 31c | 218$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cardinals | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Diamondbacks | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cardinals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Cardinals | 64c | 147.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Diamondbacks | 32c | 144.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563f…786ebacked Cardinals | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Cardinals | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Cardinals | 56c | 106.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Diamondbacks | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Cardinals | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Diamondbacks | 58c | 96.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Diamondbacks | 19c | 87.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Cardinals | 55c | 84.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cardinals | 53c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Diamondbacks | 28c | 63.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Diamondbacks | 35c | 59.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Cardinals | 65c | 52.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed Cardinals | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Diamondbacks | 46c | 30.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Cardinals | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9f…3b4bbacked Cardinals | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Cardinals | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.