NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43241267cedbd6171256cc31ab0f828786203bb227ff33166a33507d2c17fa43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 43c | 3,333$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.19 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 60c | 420.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.04 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 43c | 383.69$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f89…ccf7backed Over | 57c | 378.77$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 59c | 344.23$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 321.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 44c | 300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Over | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 234.62$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 44c | 225.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 38c | 211$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 44c | 206$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…2bb0backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…8925backed Over | 56c | 177.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Under | 55c | 144.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 42c | 142.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 35c | 129.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 54c | 112.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 106.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 39c | 103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 55c | 90.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1d…6192backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Over | 55c | 75.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…6179backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Over | 57c | 64.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…09f4backed Under | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 45c | 53.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…cc01backed Under | 44c | 46.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…0795backed Under | 44c | 45.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…e589backed Under | 44c | 43.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…d8efbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…a734backed Under | 44c | 42.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Over | 59c | 42.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Over | 59c | 42.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…74b3backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 46c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 55c | 26.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 45c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 136 | 58.1%79 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Jets vs. DucksDucks won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.