NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292ba07209fd5d42996ea20119c6c3a0bf7a856e445d9dc3f86cb58204f7f3c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 44c | 4,699$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,647.39 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 56c | 4,455$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.8 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 57c | 3,199$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.5 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 44c | 2,159$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.31 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 43c | 617$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.69 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 43c | 440$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.62 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Under | 57c | 202.47$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 43c | 116.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 112.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…23cbbacked Under | 56c | 109$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf254…3ecabacked Under | 65c | 77.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Under | 69c | 76.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 57.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 57c | 52.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 42c | 47.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 36c | 44.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 37c | 34.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 42c | 25.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Jets vs. DucksDucks won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.