NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eebdc553a570c6c8eb1c6692ccbeabf5dde290a4a4d367b575c05f314b265a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Ducks, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Ducks | 34c | 16,215$5,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,510.91 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jets | 66c | 11,417$7,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,881.79 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 66c | 2,360$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.4 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jets | 66c | 1,300$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Jets | 66c | 836$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.24 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Jets | 74c | 713.7$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Ducks | 29c | 616.31$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.01 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jets | 66c | 496.88$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.94 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Ducks | 34c | 450$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Ducks | 34c | 354$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Ducks | 30c | 323.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Jets | 68c | 321.4$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ducks | 17c | 205.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Jets | 67c | 202$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Ducks | 34c | 177$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Ducks | 32c | 156.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jets | 66c | 153.48$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Jets | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jets | 66c | 138$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 32c | 110.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Ducks | 34c | 109$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jets | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Jets | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Jets | 70c | 97.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Jets | 67c | 75.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Jets | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Ducks | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jets | 67c | 56.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Ducks | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Ducks | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Ducks | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Jets | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Jets | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Jets | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jets | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Jets | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Jets | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…ae91backed Jets | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Jets vs. DucksDucks won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Jets vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.