NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Utica Comets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4371b7941d7230c56de5a5ca8874801f021a939847b36f83bd1ff38c0c99805f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hershey Bearsof Hershey Bears, Utica Comets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Utica Comets | 48c | 7,010$3,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.92 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x778d…cbe2backed Hershey Bears | 52c | 1,483$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.84 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…1b08backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 1,379$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.05 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 1,100$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.7 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 1,000$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 787.19$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.19 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 249.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 245.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Utica Comets | 48c | 241.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a6eabacked Hershey Bears | 52c | 166$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Hershey Bears | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hershey Bears | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Utica Comets | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Hershey Bears | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Hershey Bears | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hershey Bears | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Hershey Bears | 65c | 57.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 199 | 64.3%128 W · 71 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Utica Comets | 56c | 57.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Hershey Bears | 52c | 54.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Hershey Bears | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Utica Comets | 60c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Hershey Bears | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…c4d9backed Hershey Bears | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.