MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43833fb66327c8249507da31be1d1a64c037d6d0d06dd11f7407d01fbbcb8be2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd710…cf6fbacked Under | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 2c | 1,175$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,081$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 119 | 14.3%17 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +289.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 63c | 999.99$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 41c | 883.95$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.2 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 61c | 677.61$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.91 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 37c | 273.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 42c | 231.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Over | 47c | 185.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 182.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 42c | 176.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 49c | 148.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 45c | 127$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 124.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 49c | 85.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 79.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 58c | 77.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 58c | 67.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 57.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 37c | 57.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 51c | 57.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 41c | 47.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 46.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 52c | 44.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 45c | 35.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 43c | 31.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 61c | 30.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 46c | 29.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 23.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 60c | 23.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 65c | 22.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 22.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Under | 53c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 57c | 18.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.