MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7011cdf892846835501223c456fee76be1af969c8bcae255262735354b7a4a41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof San Diego Padres, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 2,325$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.9 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 1,347$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 1,200$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.98 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 602.4$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago White Sox | 80c | 420.85$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 380$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 11c | 217.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Diego Padres | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 88.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox | 80c | 31.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 30.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 80c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-5.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.