Fifa International · resolved market
Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43944939e7b1c83671b721c4d984c883f893a024937c9b3fe615ab3e1a928e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 3c | 18,737$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.31 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 12c | 12,224$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.87 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 12c | 10,576$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.12 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 3c | 6,164$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.95 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…8a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,370$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.7 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 4c | 5,171$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.01 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…b923backed Yes | 1c | 4,103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 4c | 3,864$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 2c | 2,539$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…904abacked Yes | 3c | 2,376$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Yes | 3c | 1,860$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 1,781$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 3c | 1,254$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 4c | 1,022$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…d60abacked Yes | 3c | 969.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22c…bfc7backed Yes | 3c | 955.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 846.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked Yes | 3c | 783.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 6c | 714.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa365…ee73backed Yes | 3c | 686.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce6…107cbacked Yes | 3c | 614.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +204%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac01…2d77backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 4c | 590$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 17%19 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 4c | 566.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 3c | 549.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 3c | 517$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 6c | 416.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 402.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…b699backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…b8f5backed Yes | 4c | 394.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 4c | 334.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 4c | 303.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 169 | 25.4%43 W · 126 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…efcdbacked Yes | 8c | 259.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 16c | 245$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…0fcdbacked Yes | 12c | 206.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Azerbaijan win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will Azerbaijan vs. France end in a draw?No won
- Will France win on 2025-11-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.