MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ab7b7049f74ef2bfc8351dbbc23bea10f8be587f9f5b34e68825a271fb3e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 57c | 720.6$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.35 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 57c | 609.98$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.98 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 595.98$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 37c | 468.4$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 43c | 420.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 290.15$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Over | 26c | 231.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 176.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 27c | 149.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 44c | 134.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 26c | 116.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9101…78ddbacked Under | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 51.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Over | 45c | 27.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.