MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbce709556f1eb716111c2415e23a3865558167774ea5a2c32d93c73626d5f300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 3,724$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.31 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 1,998$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Mets | 40c | 1,615$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.17 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed New York Mets | 42c | 703.59$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.08 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 41c | 535.47$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.28 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 40c | 495$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 42c | 436.01$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets | 40c | 432$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 315.46$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked New York Mets | 41c | 315.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed New York Mets | 41c | 245.53$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed New York Mets | 42c | 203$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.74 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed New York Mets | 42c | 173$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked New York Mets | 41c | 170.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed New York Mets | 40c | 136.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked New York Mets | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked New York Mets | 42c | 118.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 117.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed New York Mets | 43c | 115.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked New York Mets | 42c | 112$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed New York Mets | 49c | 111.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed New York Mets | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked New York Mets | 43c | 91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets | 44c | 79.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed New York Mets | 41c | 69.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked New York Mets | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed New York Mets | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 68.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed New York Mets | 34c | 67.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 42c | 67.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 61.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Mets | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed New York Mets | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Mets | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked New York Mets | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked New York Mets | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 40c | 45.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 36.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked New York Mets | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 73c | 34.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 27.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed New York Mets | 42c | 27.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked New York Mets | 48c | 26.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 25.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked New York Mets | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed New York Mets | 69c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.