MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1d3d2e2cf78b2acd541633c0284b08e8ad8164e9e2c4ef65f7d09f5ab09e296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b88…9856backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 4,465$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.51 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.99 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 46c | 3,360$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.39 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Over | 54c | 3,301$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.62 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Over | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 35c | 900.01$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 505.82$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 47c | 478$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.34 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 295.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 52c | 174.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 47c | 147.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 53c | 130.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Under | 47c | 100.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 55c | 92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 55c | 91.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 52c | 76.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 53c | 56.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Under | 48c | 36.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…4f8ebacked Over | 47c | 26.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 53c | 26.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 58c | 19.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.