Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43efb6719be71778d5f6f9450493e8bfb7156c22ed0eae3f20367f143b63af1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 59c | 652.19$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.93 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 40c | 485.72$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.67 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 464.53$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.11 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 80c | 365$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 80c | 253$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 56c | 235.75$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 202.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 20c | 175.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 158.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 75c | 119.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 114.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 67c | 109.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed Yes | 29c | 102.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…62bebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 89.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 85.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 81.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 27c | 81.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 79.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 74.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 80c | 71.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 66.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 76c | 64.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 37c | 58.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 39c | 50.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 50.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 50.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 49.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 69c | 46.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 43.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 64c | 43.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 69c | 35.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…f36fbacked Yes | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 57c | 31.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 28.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 41c | 25.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 58c | 24.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 24.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d39…3881backed No | 67c | 23.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 59c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 63c | 23.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 66c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 67c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6901…cb49backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 20.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 64c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 16.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…8ac7backed No | 79c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.