Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4439724e64b1a185a5894e3d0194b76a57b570bd8208f091f7f3692dc17d4120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 654.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 645.5$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 50c | 600.41$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.19 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 2c | 536$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked Yes | 36c | 488.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 51c | 377.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…6566backed No | 70c | 330$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 36c | 326.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…cd26backed No | 64c | 290$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 277.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 79c | 274.97$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 31c | 228.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b41…3606backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 30c | 195.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 60c | 163.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 39c | 119.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…4f75backed Yes | 58c | 119.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…41f6backed Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 26c | 107.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…8efbbacked No | 66c | 100.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 32c | 89.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 73c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…5e88backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 51c | 20.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 63-64°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 67°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 61-62°F on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 65-66°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.