Tennis · resolved market
Centurion 2: Luc Koenig vs Semen Pankin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x444511a2a84d7d6048c161bfeaa00e3782796c0b34c44516dfb7a1990c224adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Semen Pankinof Luc Koenig, Semen Pankin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Luc Koenig | 26c | 1,516$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.47 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Luc Koenig | 13c | 813.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 421 | 25.7%108 W · 313 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Semen Pankin | 78c | 693.43$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.02 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luc Koenig | 17c | 676.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Semen Pankin | 78c | 614.38$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Luc Koenig | 27c | 566.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Luc Koenig | 15c | 515.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Semen Pankin | 77c | 445.69$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Semen Pankin | 73c | 405.4$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Semen Pankin | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Luc Koenig | 25c | 361.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35a…ce87backed Luc Koenig | 18c | 360.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Semen Pankin | 76c | 326.76$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Luc Koenig | 34c | 290.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 62.8%179 W · 106 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…1bd7backed Luc Koenig | 20c | 254.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 67.9%74 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Semen Pankin | 73c | 173$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Luc Koenig | 15c | 142.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6e…542dbacked Semen Pankin | 79c | 140.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…feb0backed Semen Pankin | 77c | 135.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Luc Koenig | 27c | 114.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Luc Koenig | 21c | 111.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…7d02backed Luc Koenig | 27c | 110.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Luc Koenig | 14c | 107.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Luc Koenig | 27c | 106.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Luc Koenig | 21c | 99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 753 | 12.2%92 W · 661 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Luc Koenig | 11c | 95.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Luc Koenig | 17c | 86.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Semen Pankin | 66c | 85.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Luc Koenig | 27c | 74.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…add3backed Semen Pankin | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 206 | 70.4%145 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Semen Pankin | 75c | 65.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1,132 | 50.3%569 W · 563 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Semen Pankin | 78c | 62.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Semen Pankin | 73c | 62.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Semen Pankin | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…716abacked Luc Koenig | 26c | 54.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Luc Koenig | 27c | 53.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Luc Koenig | 27c | 48.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Semen Pankin | 72c | 48.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Semen Pankin | 74c | 42.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Semen Pankin | 74c | 39.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Luc Koenig | 34c | 36.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Semen Pankin | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…7623backed Semen Pankin | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 249 | 75.5%188 W · 61 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Semen Pankin | 73c | 32.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4134backed Semen Pankin | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 449 | 49.4%222 W · 227 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Semen Pankin | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Semen Pankin | 77c | 20.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Semen Pankin | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Semen Pankin | 78c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Semen Pankin | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Semen Pankin | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 604 | 46.7%282 W · 322 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…5f41backed Semen Pankin | 77c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.