Lol · resolved market
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x446c36d0b7ab18b38022f0c3f6734636bc39807d985933469bf1120e0821f6d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Disguised, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x000e…f7e9backed Disguised | 12c | 12,633$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.91 | 899 | 43.4%390 W · 509 L | +22.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258c…7c23backed Disguised | 13c | 12,517$1,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,627.22 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…19abbacked Disguised | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 431 | 4.9%21 W · 410 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Disguised | 1c | 7,288$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 786 | 9.8%77 W · 709 L | +22.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Disguised | 9c | 6,747$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.13 | 1,389 | 37.7%524 W · 865 L | -45.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Disguised | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,468 | 28.9%424 W · 1,044 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…f4e0backed Disguised | 14c | 3,700$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.64 | 642 | 47.4%304 W · 338 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Disguised | 13c | 2,445$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 572 | 46%263 W · 309 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Disguised | 12c | 2,269$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.91 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Disguised | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 1,208 | 35.8%432 W · 776 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Disguised | 7c | 1,672$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…6193backed Disguised | 14c | 1,430$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…0d7cbacked Disguised | 1c | 1,414$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 675 | 53.5%361 W · 314 L | +25.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59aa…3376backed Disguised | 14c | 1,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.05 | 1,131 | 43.1%487 W · 644 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…7d7bbacked Disguised | 3c | 1,027$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 665 | 59.5%396 W · 269 L | +72.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…3cc4backed Disguised | 13c | 961.54$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d0…f87ebacked Disguised | 10c | 911.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 399 | 40.4%161 W · 238 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…07dbbacked Disguised | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Disguised | 10c | 804.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…df49backed Disguised | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 233 | 32.6%76 W · 157 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Disguised | 13c | 769.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 690 | 41.3%285 W · 405 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…f8b3backed Disguised | 14c | 689.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…39cebacked Disguised | 13c | 668.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Disguised | 8c | 635.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 406 | 37.7%153 W · 253 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Disguised | 5c | 626$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 148 | 31.1%46 W · 102 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fe…211ebacked Disguised | 8c | 509.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Disguised | 14c | 491.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 1,318 | 47.3%624 W · 694 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Disguised | 13c | 297.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…c18fbacked Disguised | 12c | 249.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…1dcebacked Disguised | 7c | 212.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…417abacked Disguised | 7c | 209.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…4781backed Disguised | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ae…6584backed Disguised | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 61.1%162 W · 103 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…3195backed Disguised | 13c | 153.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…2675backed Disguised | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 334 | 56%187 W · 147 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…6825backed Disguised | 15c | 108.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8be…ba9fbacked Disguised | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Disguised | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 777 | 41.7%324 W · 453 L | -27.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Disguised | 13c | 77.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,899 | 37.1%705 W · 1,194 L | -113.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.