Lol · resolved market
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8376f4a1db028621f2d891ddcc77e8de0b397c17e67406549586f16ae5a065d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Disguised, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d85…f4e0backed Disguised | 4c | 26,818$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.94 | 650 | 47.4%308 W · 342 L | +24.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…19abbacked Disguised | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 431 | 4.9%21 W · 410 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Disguised | 3c | 7,802$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.05 | 459 | 37%170 W · 289 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Disguised | 2c | 6,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.28 | 1,056 | 50.4%532 W · 524 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…0d7cbacked Disguised | 1c | 5,720$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 678 | 53.4%362 W · 316 L | +25.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Disguised | 4c | 5,223$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 1,428 | 38.4%548 W · 880 L | -42.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Disguised | 3c | 4,786$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 788 | 9.8%77 W · 711 L | +22.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Disguised | 3c | 4,357$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 2,237 | 33.3%745 W · 1,492 L | -71.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…7d7bbacked Disguised | 1c | 4,156$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 692 | 59.7%413 W · 279 L | +75.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…6193backed Disguised | 2c | 4,100$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 217 | 49.8%108 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d66…ff1dbacked Disguised | 16c | 4,074$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Disguised | 5c | 2,535$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ae…df49backed Disguised | 1c | 2,100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 234 | 32.5%76 W · 158 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…2a89backed Disguised | 17c | 2,076$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed Disguised | 13c | 2,020$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 1,221 | 35.9%438 W · 783 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed Disguised | 4c | 1,940$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 1,299 | 26.6%345 W · 954 L | +65.4wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d0…f87ebacked Disguised | 8c | 1,841$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Disguised | 1c | 1,560$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Disguised | 4c | 1,497$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Disguised | 3c | 1,463$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 3,159 | 33.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L | -152.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…1d14backed Disguised | 5c | 1,223$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 372 | 52.2%194 W · 178 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Disguised | 15c | 1,107$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.99 | 1,184 | 44.4%526 W · 658 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…ac2bbacked Disguised | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Disguised | 8c | 878.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59aa…3376backed Disguised | 11c | 871.46$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,136 | 43.2%491 W · 645 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Disguised | 12c | 862.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 1,474 | 29%427 W · 1,047 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Disguised | 12c | 639.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.69 | 355 | 42.3%150 W · 205 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Disguised | 13c | 599.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 471 | 36.9%174 W · 297 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…3cc4backed Disguised | 19c | 519.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Disguised | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 650 | 43.1%280 W · 370 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Disguised | 11c | 410$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1,098 | 34.8%382 W · 716 L | -17.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Disguised | 16c | 407.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 866 | 49.7%430 W · 436 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Disguised | 3c | 400.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2,020 | 30.5%617 W · 1,403 L | -172.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…fff9backed Disguised | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 566 | 10.4%59 W · 507 L | +16.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Disguised | 13c | 338.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 548 | 29.6%162 W · 386 L | -36.3wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…fe79backed Disguised | 14c | 322.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 309 | 47.2%146 W · 163 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8be…ba9fbacked Disguised | 14c | 170.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…f8b3backed Disguised | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Disguised | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 690 | 41.3%285 W · 405 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0398…52b4backed Disguised | 14c | 114.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Disguised | 14c | 110.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,939 | 42.2%819 W · 1,120 L | -46.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…de1dbacked Disguised | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fe…5cbfbacked Disguised | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Disguised | 13c | 94.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,852 | 39.8%738 W · 1,114 L | -64.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…5e34backed Disguised | 14c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 101 | 16.8%17 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…dc55backed Disguised | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Liquid | 80c | 35.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,707 | 35.9%972 W · 1,735 L | -152.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)Team Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonTeam Liquid won
- LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.