Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6da245cd02ca8957bfdef8ad00cd66b8d2b09027b8a73b1d2e40f9b45786bb6

Rebuilt 37 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Disguised
Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $20,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,145 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x58f8…dc70backed Team Liquid	76c	7,719$5,866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,852.5	403	70.2%283 W · 120 L	+31.3wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Disguised	22c	5,670$1,247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,247.5	372	45.2%168 W · 204 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c07dbacked Team Liquid	78c	5,000$3,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,100	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Disguised	24c	4,728$1,135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,134.81	354	43.2%153 W · 201 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Liquid	80c	3,000$2,388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611.78	918	54%496 W · 422 L	-1.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3116…b30dbacked Disguised	24c	1,480$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.27	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Disguised	21c	1,239$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.21	624	51.4%321 W · 303 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Disguised	24c	779.54$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.09	1,047	50.3%527 W · 520 L	+37.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Disguised	22c	714.62$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.9	2,938	44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L	-92.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Team Liquid	79c	572.86$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.86	650	63.2%411 W · 239 L	+7.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6691…5a83backed Disguised	20c	532$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.4	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Disguised	24c	523.58$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	2,362	32%755 W · 1,607 L	+42.0wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked Disguised	20c	499.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Disguised	23c	499.92$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.98	488	47.3%231 W · 257 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Team Liquid	76c	422.58$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.42	98	62.2%61 W · 37 L	+9.6wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Team Liquid	77c	399.99$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	644	53.9%347 W · 297 L	+16.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Team Liquid	78c	329.41$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.47	821	61%501 W · 320 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63ef…7d38backed Disguised	20c	319$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Team Liquid	78c	300$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	660	59.8%395 W · 265 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Disguised	23c	266.72$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.35	1,385	45.1%625 W · 760 L	-12.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Disguised	20c	255$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	256	40.6%104 W · 152 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Team Liquid	77c	247$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.81	197	58.9%116 W · 81 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Disguised	23c	240$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	356	42.4%151 W · 205 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Disguised	21c	238$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.57	358	48.9%175 W · 183 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf6…52bfbacked Disguised	24c	208.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.4wins	-0.22per pick	36cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x789a…3dfabacked Disguised	20c	195$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Team Liquid	77c	189.8$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.65	113	69%78 W · 35 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Team Liquid	77c	154$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.42	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Liquid	77c	133.87$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.57	1,593	43.8%697 W · 896 L	-74.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b17…d36dbacked Team Liquid	75c	128.36$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.51	108	34.3%37 W · 71 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Team Liquid	78c	125$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.85	116	57.8%67 W · 49 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Disguised	24c	116.37$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.93	447	45.2%202 W · 245 L	-14.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Disguised	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed Disguised	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	260	48.8%127 W · 133 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Disguised	24c	90$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	145	46.9%68 W · 77 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Disguised	22c	86$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.51	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.9wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Liquid	78c	75$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	1,239	37.3%462 W · 777 L	-39.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-27%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Disguised	20c	73.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	347	42.1%146 W · 201 L	-13.1wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd3…99b2backed Disguised	24c	70.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f3…e279backed Team Liquid	74c	69$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.94	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	61cpaid	+21%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42fc…174bbacked Team Liquid	78c	64.23$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.23	40	55%22 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Disguised	20c	62.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	581	55.6%323 W · 258 L	+17.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Disguised	23c	59.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	704	43.9%309 W · 395 L	-15.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Disguised	25c	50.35$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	639	44.6%285 W · 354 L	-18.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Disguised	23c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	584	37.2%217 W · 367 L	-7.9wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5926…e20abacked Disguised	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	65cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaaa…d3b5backed Disguised	24c	47.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.23per pick	41cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91dc…ca3abacked Team Liquid	74c	44.99$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9803…0242backed Team Liquid	78c	41.03$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.03	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Team Liquid	77c	40.43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	182	41.8%76 W · 106 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd673…2305backed Team Liquid	77c	40.43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	34	70.6%24 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Team Liquid	77c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	246	42.3%104 W · 142 L	-15.6wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d2d…b69dbacked Team Liquid	77c	38.96$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.96	119	63.9%76 W · 43 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5452…d12ebacked Team Liquid	77c	38.04$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.75	102	65.7%67 W · 35 L	+11.3wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x36de…cf07backed Team Liquid	79c	37.97$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	153	59.5%91 W · 62 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f6…6ba1backed Team Liquid	76c	35$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	20	75%15 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	71cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Team Liquid	77c	29$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	102	53.9%55 W · 47 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43f7…e591backed Team Liquid	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	207	48.3%100 W · 107 L	-7.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Team Liquid	77c	24.71$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.68	125	57.6%72 W · 53 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf151…24c7backed Team Liquid	77c	24.55$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.65	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd233…14f3backed Team Liquid	77c	24$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.52	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e1…c227backed Team Liquid	77c	19.48$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.48	80	83.8%67 W · 13 L	+11.2wins	+0.14per pick	70cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)this page
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular SeasonTeam Liquid won
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
LoL: Disguised vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?Over won
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event