La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449f7eb5b66e21b647c9340577aa200121639184e69531a0e866acd681bce6df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2759…2b38backed Yes | 13c | 35,994$4,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,679.22 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Yes | 6c | 25,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…f1e2backed Yes | 11c | 12,836$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 6,820$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.88 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 16c | 4,748$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.72 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…74e1backed Yes | 14c | 4,742$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 8c | 3,795$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.62 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 1c | 3,676$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 237 | 27%64 W · 173 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 13c | 3,042$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.43 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 14c | 2,134$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…fc42backed Yes | 12c | 1,962$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.44 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 1,570$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 8c | 1,111$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…5f2ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,075$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 13c | 1,072$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 9c | 1,052$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 378 | 29.4%111 W · 267 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed Yes | 13c | 947.8$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 14c | 945.2$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 357 | 59.4%212 W · 145 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 3c | 576.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 9c | 493.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 13c | 452.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 744 | 57.5%428 W · 316 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddaf…3de6backed Yes | 17c | 436.53$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d0…ec9abacked Yes | 14c | 426.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Yes | 16c | 397.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 10c | 378.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked Yes | 6c | 375.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0f…a1acbacked Yes | 15c | 316.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 15c | 297.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 239 | 57.7%138 W · 101 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…0607backed Yes | 12c | 285.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 14c | 270.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 10c | 219.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 13c | 218.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 12c | 215.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 14c | 204$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 12c | 197.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 206 | 30.6%63 W · 143 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e6…a613backed Yes | 14c | 168.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x317a…d6f5backed Yes | 9c | 163.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 16c | 148.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Yes | 12c | 118.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 11c | 109.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…682bbacked Yes | 17c | 102.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 15c | 101.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 331 | 61.3%203 W · 128 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 238 | 43.3%103 W · 135 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Yes | 13c | 96.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 193 | 58.5%113 W · 80 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 15c | 94.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9d…bf8dbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb2…6fa5backed Yes | 14c | 83.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?this page
- Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21?No won
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.