Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a5e816f38493c6e6bc5b9f7ee2009902229f395ddc663044b18257d1c713e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 751.59$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.04 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 512.72$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.82 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 25c | 408.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…bb7cbacked Yes | 27c | 375.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…0256backed Yes | 29c | 269.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.92 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 261.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 73c | 257.49$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 235.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 195.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 179.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 176.42$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 155.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 151.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…7249backed No | 77c | 129.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 12c | 119.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 13c | 113.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 112.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 25c | 109.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked Yes | 27c | 109.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 26c | 102.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 566 | 54.4%308 W · 258 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 23c | 81.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 17c | 79.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 66c | 76.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,183 | 54.9%650 W · 533 L | +50.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 75.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 77c | 74.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 70.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 67.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 66c | 66.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 63.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 75c | 63.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 57.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Yes | 24c | 57.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 26c | 49.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…9a08backed No | 74c | 48.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 24c | 45.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 37.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 36c | 31.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 31.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 77c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.