Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d0a3bdb2cd90d62d2fec9da160a5ecbdccf1d6658193e5971671e1b16a79b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 35c | 825.12$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.51 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 68c | 616.8$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 517.44$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 37c | 477.38$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 368.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 258.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 233.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 230.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 205.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 195.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 80c | 195.65$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.52 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 19c | 188.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 148.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 145.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…8e0ebacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 75c | 125.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 124.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 110.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 18c | 109.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 22c | 105.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 30c | 94.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 93.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 86.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 19c | 78.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6f…dd17backed Yes | 19c | 78.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +420.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 39c | 76.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked Yes | 16c | 68.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 30c | 52.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 21c | 51.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 25c | 49.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 45.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 79c | 44.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 30.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 27.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 19.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 72c | 18.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b1…a5edbacked Yes | 77c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 78c | 13.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0eb…9b18backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.