Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b5acad99745aab6da8aeaf7223c403f977dc799f2e22f3aa8d2578024b0f37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noskovaof Pegula, Noskova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Pegula | 60c | 6,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Noskova | 45c | 5,237$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.35 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pegula | 61c | 3,215$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.07 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Noskova | 38c | 1,956$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.77 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Pegula | 58c | 1,594$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.62 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Noskova | 39c | 1,445$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.8 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Pegula | 43c | 1,300$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Noskova | 43c | 1,171$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…91b0backed Pegula | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Noskova | 37c | 999.96$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.97 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…e7a1backed Pegula | 64c | 967.91$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.46 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Pegula | 63c | 794$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.22 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Noskova | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Noskova | 37c | 600.25$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.16 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Noskova | 39c | 409$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.49 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Pegula | 52c | 383.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Noskova | 37c | 365.47$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Pegula | 57c | 348.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Pegula | 62c | 322.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Pegula | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Pegula | 64c | 314.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Pegula | 62c | 300$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Noskova | 40c | 268.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Pegula | 58c | 259.67$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Noskova | 39c | 251.03$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Pegula | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pegula | 63c | 116.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Pegula | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Noskova | 39c | 102.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Noskova | 30c | 100.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Pegula | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Noskova | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd9…714cbacked Noskova | 44c | 92.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…2f0dbacked Pegula | 66c | 81.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Pegula | 70c | 57.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Noskova | 37c | 56.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Pegula | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Noskova | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Pegula | 63c | 54.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked Pegula | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Pegula | 66c | 42.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Noskova | 66c | 41.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Pegula | 57c | 36.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…f9e9backed Pegula | 66c | 30.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Pegula | 66c | 29.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Pegula | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Noskova | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Pegula | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.