Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d7e9b4e6c6114744c9e3fd3b4ef1c5f7ec9dbc999222ec01d8bb4e53b8ed1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 454.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 308$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.73 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 263.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 62c | 257.9$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 216.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 33c | 178$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 170.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 167.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 149.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 122.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 17c | 112.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 73c | 102.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 90.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 87.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 82.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 80.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 70.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 30c | 65.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 65.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 78c | 64.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 60.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 54.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 63c | 53.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 52.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 51.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 48.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 75c | 40.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 39.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 38.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…bc96backed Yes | 61c | 33.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 53c | 30.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 54c | 30.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 30.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 30.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 41c | 26.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 73c | 26.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 74c | 14.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 76c | 14.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.