Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f6dca007cafb765921b65e8a4608289ffa3d134448cdbb1b0ae18d77d835d1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 509.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 45c | 468.93$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.27 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 47c | 445.96$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.69 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 34c | 336.84$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 286.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 272.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 44c | 257.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.11 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 170.61$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 163.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 52c | 156.67$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 145.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.93 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 50c | 142.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 23c | 126.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 122.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 66c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 97.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 30c | 96.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 96.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 38c | 90.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 29c | 85.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 52c | 79.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 64c | 78.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 78.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 70c | 74.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 74.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 67.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 54c | 65.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 60.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…657bbacked Yes | 58c | 58.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 49c | 58.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 47c | 57.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 46c | 54.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 52.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 32c | 45.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 47c | 45.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 55c | 43.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 38.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…c8b9backed Yes | 59c | 36.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 43c | 36.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 43c | 36.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…b34abacked Yes | 43c | 36.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2b…d6a7backed Yes | 43c | 36.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 30.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 54c | 26.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 53c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 45c | 25.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 54c | 22.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad0…3a91backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed Yes | 56c | 18.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.