Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x496efaf3fb6118c57a9b4638c2963e1b04bca9ebc7d9b64545f3736ed577c36a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 552.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 274.43$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 187.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 12c | 172.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 137$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 123.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 122.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 107.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 12c | 103.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 93.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 74.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 74.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 65.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 64.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 53.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 51.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 51.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 51.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 51.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 50.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 49.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 36c | 48.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 43.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 66c | 37.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 38c | 34.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 37c | 29.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 37c | 29.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 60c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 71c | 17.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 61c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.