NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e569ea34e8d4063b2a2eb019a6ea02dd6f2099b37d4c9b00a680e30577bd58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,857 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 6c | 33,496$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.91 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 47c | 3,574$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.57 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…bebdbacked Over | 52c | 2,883$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.84 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 2,389$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 25c | 1,441$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.05 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 48c | 1,370$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.62 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 47c | 1,280$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.52 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 52c | 1,250$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 1,120$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.97 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 48c | 1,014$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.81 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 56c | 888.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.18 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 51c | 843$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.07 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 53c | 832.36$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.9 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 586.77$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 28c | 400.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 9c | 389.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…a8aebacked Over | 52c | 369.22$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.23 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 52c | 329.44$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.58 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…aff2backed Over | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 5c | 252.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Over | 53c | 249.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 50c | 248.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 218.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…8b73backed Over | 46c | 217.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 48c | 207.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef92…f133backed Under | 21c | 171.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…b58ebacked Over | 66c | 152.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 107 | 25.2%27 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 18c | 147.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 298 | 48%143 W · 155 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 32c | 116.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 13c | 111.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 50c | 88.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 76c | 77.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Under | 32c | 74.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 655 | 42.9%281 W · 374 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 52c | 66.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 62c | 64.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 52c | 57.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 52c | 52.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 27c | 47.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…18ffbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 43.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 50c | 40.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 48c | 39.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 62c | 38.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 49c | 35.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…e52cbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed Under | 48c | 34.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 198 | 51%101 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 52c | 32.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Over | 54c | 31.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 51c | 31.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 35c | 31.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 42c | 30.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2d…cd74backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 123 | 64.2%79 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…ccf1backed Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 52c | 22.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5this page
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Klay Thompson: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. MavericksWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.