NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb321d6e905b0037f94d28aa00b49d00be2752e041378b464a1baa2076fdccef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,414 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 50c | 2,155$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.62 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 50c | 893$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed Over | 50c | 876$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 610$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 39.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 48c | 33.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Over | 49c | 30.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68c…c8b1backed Over | 42c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…4132backed Under | 52c | 28.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Under | 52c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 144 | 71.5%103 W · 41 L | +22.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5this page
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Klay Thompson: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. MavericksWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.