NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02fd110cc95f5b456b7b0cea1b575c894854ffe1be900aaaa3613990e2b74a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,210 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 51c | 7,750$3,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,952.33 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 7,234$3,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,617 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Over | 49c | 3,661$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.22 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2653backed Under | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 2,397$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.09 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Over | 50c | 2,222$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.02 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked Under | 51c | 1,952$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.43 | 231 | 47.6%110 W · 121 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 49c | 1,652$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.38 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Over | 50c | 1,622$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…4cc6backed Over | 52c | 1,594$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.64 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 1,593$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.5 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,467$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.68 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 49c | 1,200$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.8 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 1,098$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 1,069$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.96 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Over | 50c | 976.2$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.1 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 642.71$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.53 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…d254backed Over | 52c | 584.78$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.29 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 49c | 580.83$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.22 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…e094backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 52c | 480$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 49c | 451.3$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.14 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…5847backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Over | 45c | 235.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 51c | 233.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 189.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5a…2a37backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Over | 52c | 154.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 50c | 119.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 118.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 52c | 96.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…55e3backed Over | 52c | 96.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Under | 48c | 87.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Over | 49c | 83.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Over | 50c | 81.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Under | 52c | 76.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 47c | 70.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 48c | 68.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…6b87backed Over | 50c | 56.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 50cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…642dbacked Under | 53c | 55.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 181 | 43.1%78 W · 103 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 50c | 45.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 49c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…74e3backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…4989backed Under | 49c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 50c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…b552backed Under | 51c | 25.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 25.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 51c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 514 | 38.7%199 W · 315 L | -29.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8698…871fbacked Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 48c | 20.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…39f7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…9660backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5this page
- Brandin Podziemski: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Klay Thompson: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. MavericksWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.