TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$746,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $746,159 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Warriors51c337,291$172,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165,272.6387451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Mavericks49c299,300$146,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146,65766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Warriors50c122,433$60,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,477.621,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Mavericks50c114,977$57,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,488.4623147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Mavericks52c48,222$25,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,075.5948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Warriors48c44,028$21,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,718.041,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Mavericks49c41,420$20,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,295.741,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Warriors51c35,058$17,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,179.2443148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Mavericks51c29,297$14,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,930.955253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Warriors48c28,832$13,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,040.724,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Mavericks54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors31c8,987$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,223.578,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Warriors49c8,094$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.087459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Mavericks49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Warriors49c6,770$3,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,434.622,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Mavericks50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks47c5,987$2,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,811.474,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Mavericks50c5,372$2,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6861,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Warriors67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6501,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc38…1e98backed Warriors51c4,156$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.545341.5%22 W · 31 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Warriors50c3,970$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00131643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks52c3,750$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9412,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Warriors50c3,698$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.2482442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mavericks47c3,689$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.072,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks51c3,411$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.824,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ea1…3a0fbacked Warriors48c2,999$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbba4…6d60backed Warriors48c2,962$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5272…905ebacked Mavericks52c2,921$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c5…3870backed Warriors48c2,880$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x300f…4172backed Mavericks52c2,851$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b0…2df5backed Mavericks52c2,838$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Warriors51c2,835$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.3834851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb0…a082backed Mavericks52c2,786$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dac…fb80backed Mavericks52c2,712$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.2420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a9…7d7cbacked Warriors48c2,625$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ad…24b7backed Warriors48c2,613$1,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd910…410fbacked Warriors48c2,601$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb700…cc13backed Mavericks52c2,572$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Mavericks53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors50c2,426$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.264,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Warriors47c2,283$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.873,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67b4…19acbacked Warriors48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0924052.5%21 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Mavericks51c2,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02019346.1%89 W · 104 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Warriors69c1,868$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.8126337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks50c1,800$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Warriors46c1,748$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.1537747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Warriors50c1,692$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.911,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c67…a0e0backed Mavericks58c1,555$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90029646.6%138 W · 158 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aaf…f724backed Mavericks53c1,421$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.156564.6%42 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf303…5847backed Mavericks51c1,373$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7003237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Mavericks52c1,271$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.0817850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Mavericks34c1,176$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007432.4%24 W · 50 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Mavericks51c1,171$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.319445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Mavericks52c1,103$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.482,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ad…2d59backed Mavericks42c1,101$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.711625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Warriors47c1,049$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.642,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Mavericks51c989.5$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.6517637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Warriors46c978.26$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.2687453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Warriors47c958.17$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.1717349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Mavericks53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50048957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Warriors63c882.08$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.0895452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…0426backed Warriors51c867.65$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.653839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3918…b552backed Warriors43c846.64$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.9914046.4%65 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e9…39b0backed Warriors74c828.92$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.727152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Warriors48c823.77$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.3623850%119 W · 119 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2fb…610cbacked Mavericks61c813.5$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.322748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Mavericks47c678.79$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.515240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Warriors46c667$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.1836351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors51c654.29$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb178…1fa0backed Mavericks50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Mavericks50c586.62$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3121550.2%108 W · 107 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Mavericks52c577$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.041,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Mavericks53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30090957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks50c544.79$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.463,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Mavericks18c540.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9311145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Mavericks42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12f…e61dbacked Mavericks52c467.59$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.152878.6%22 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Mavericks52c462$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2442845.1%193 W · 235 L-15.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Mavericks19c453.72$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.041,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Mavericks53c450$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.566645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed Warriors49c448.98$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.987565.3%49 W · 26 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Mavericks58c446.7$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1618235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Warriors42c426.54$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.661,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02a9…642dbacked Mavericks50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018143.1%78 W · 103 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5302…0a6fbacked Mavericks51c399.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20411957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Warriors50c397.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Warriors52c392.92$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.61,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa57d…611cbacked Warriors47c382.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.982055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b55…cde3backed Mavericks53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008151.9%42 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a8…d8cdbacked Mavericks53c372.24$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.613060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Warriors53c368.41$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.689159.3%54 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Mavericks61c350$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2157754.5%42 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Mavericks50c333.92$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.961,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf879…820ebacked Warriors49c326.96$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.9611833.9%40 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8698…871fbacked Mavericks58c320.54$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Mavericks53c317.91$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8645151.4%232 W · 219 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Warriors66c316.09$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.576653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Mavericks51c313.73$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16033251.2%170 W · 162 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Mavericks59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17711245.5%51 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Mavericks53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1596950.7%35 W · 34 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.