TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,448 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under51c73,550$37,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,261.761,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under52c30,881$16,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,008.531,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c25,000$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over50c18,888$9,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,44424053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c12,868$6,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,667.074,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d0…743dbacked Over49c8,600$4,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3861070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+38.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Over48c7,416$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,856.3231643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Over48c7,292$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,791.6716249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Over48c7,292$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,791.677451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over46c6,039$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,272.354,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfed…db6fbacked Under51c5,496$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.9630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Over48c5,337$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,775.0717850%89 W · 89 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Under54c4,998$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.810949.5%54 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Over48c4,945$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.4218749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over48c4,669$2,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,427.762,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under55c4,545$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ed…06f8backed Under51c3,100$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over47c2,740$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.348,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Over48c2,008$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.1625049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over49c2,000$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,01284342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over54c1,853$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.6740344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x284d…59f7backed Over46c1,824$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.961668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under53c1,438$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.932,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over47c1,260$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287a…7976backed Over48c1,244$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.735754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf303…5847backed Under54c1,111$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Over48c1,108$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.0119445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under45c1,046$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.822,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over46c964.08$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.832,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under51c852.59$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.693,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under53c788.54$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.9337747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Over50c788.14$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.148756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Under51c779.6$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.618235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over48c737.68$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.592,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over49c705.07$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.2687049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over48c692.75$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.2336351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over48c660.4$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.212,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over48c620.57$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.561,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over49c596.13$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.443,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over49c452.72$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.894,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over47c406.54$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.476,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x743a…ddcdbacked Under49c399.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.996043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b06…9672backed Under17c397.92$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Under51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010546.7%49 W · 56 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Under51c340.53$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4942352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under13c302.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Under77c300$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23111245.5%51 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90df…a209backed Over46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3929848%143 W · 155 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21db…2a42backed Over48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3318850.5%95 W · 93 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…038ebacked Over48c198.17$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.176550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed Under54c185.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.41per pick55cpaid-73.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under54c179$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9677549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0152…b455backed Over47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9466046.4%306 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under51c148$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4829352.9%155 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over51c147.14$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7789048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Under40c142.61$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.441,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56c…4623backed Under8c118.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over46c104.51$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9925138.6%97 W · 154 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5178648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5097049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x686d…9eb4backed Under10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Over48c98.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.114251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019851%101 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Under51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c90.47$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.45,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked Over46c89.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1513448.5%65 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over51c87.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0351438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea21…b96cbacked Over58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Over60c83.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3718835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Under54c80$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.215240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over49c74.82$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.241,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Under68c73.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5069049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcba6…bb05backed Over48c72.91$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9138853.4%207 W · 181 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c69.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.885,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over46c67.56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4857250%286 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x902f…fb2dbacked Under49c55.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1313857.2%79 W · 59 L+13.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+22.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88ae…9c62backed Over53c54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.382030%6 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Under39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d75…12a6backed Over47c50.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.719258.7%54 W · 38 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb19f…80a7backed Over50c46.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.16977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick47cpaid+49%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12f9…6967backed Over32c46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281060%6 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+57.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Over48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.912331.7%39 W · 84 L-17.0wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-39.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3bfc…8eb3backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2013947.5%66 W · 73 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Under52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029046.9%136 W · 154 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under52c37.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde2…3fcfbacked Under52c37.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.388956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over46c36.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5550948.5%247 W · 262 L+2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under53c36.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1954854.2%297 W · 251 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under53c34.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.181,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under41c31.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2830…c47bbacked Under43c30.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc01d…2e79backed Under50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08d1…28adbacked Under52c28.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over50c26.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9987744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39d…a06dbacked Under40c25.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90b5…2139backed Under48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.12152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Under49c24.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2437549.6%186 W · 189 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea34…8efcbacked Over48c24.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8616551.5%85 W · 80 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over46c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9671752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.