Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4501e76f9af53a67155e9534eb3d01ef5a74f34ebc0ac1ba772f94d5a4fa472b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 7c | 531.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…b4b0backed Yes | 30c | 520.54$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 33c | 341.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 39c | 317$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 76c | 309.75$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 246.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 243.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 182.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 160.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 17c | 156.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 141.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 32c | 136.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 115.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 115.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…f01dbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 85.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 75c | 77.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 79c | 74.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 17c | 71.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 28c | 69.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 63.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed No | 78c | 62.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 63c | 61.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa141…6744backed Yes | 26c | 57.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 24c | 51.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 68c | 47.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 45.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 74c | 42.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 37c | 40.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 32.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 66c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 70c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 72c | 20.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.