CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs HOTU (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45079b8462ee223411734d8849be3a05486348d23a6499913105be720e244462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof TheMongolz, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked HOTU | 20c | 100,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,000 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6937…085dbacked TheMongolz | 80c | 70,000$56,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,000 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked TheMongolz | 80c | 35,254$28,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,063.89 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked HOTU | 20c | 10,867$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,693.6 | 226 | 25.7%58 W · 168 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked TheMongolz | 80c | 7,777$6,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,221.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed HOTU | 22c | 6,739$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,239.13 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed TheMongolz | 79c | 6,739$5,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,339.13 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8206…7cacbacked HOTU | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed TheMongolz | 79c | 4,950$3,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,910.5 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed HOTU | 19c | 4,156$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,347.49 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked HOTU | 37c | 2,251$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.43 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed HOTU | 19c | 2,007$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked TheMongolz | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked HOTU | 47c | 1,595$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.4 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed HOTU | 38c | 1,498$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.88 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed TheMongolz | 79c | 1,218$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8f…ef1bbacked TheMongolz | 56c | 1,146$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HOTU | 24c | 1,000$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.2 | 5,911 | 37.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L | +74.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed TheMongolz | 80c | 990$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HOTU | 18c | 974.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.08 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…0dc4backed TheMongolz | 65c | 926$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.5 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked HOTU | 42c | 844.88$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.26 | 836 | 52.5%439 W · 397 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed HOTU | 21c | 740$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.6 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed TheMongolz | 54c | 737.68$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.57 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked HOTU | 21c | 714.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.29 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed TheMongolz | 79c | 714.29$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked TheMongolz | 80c | 700$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1,149 | 49.4%568 W · 581 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked HOTU | 40c | 516.52$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.87 | 1,627 | 45.7%743 W · 884 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed HOTU | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked HOTU | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed TheMongolz | 56c | 444$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.64 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked HOTU | 41c | 398.51$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.18 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…73b3backed TheMongolz | 59c | 338.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed HOTU | 20c | 301.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ec…18f4backed TheMongolz | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed TheMongolz | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HOTU | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed HOTU | 47c | 298.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 385 | 52.2%201 W · 184 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed TheMongolz | 46c | 230$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed TheMongolz | 45c | 226.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed TheMongolz | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf725…136abacked HOTU | 46c | 189.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed TheMongolz | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked TheMongolz | 63c | 180$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed TheMongolz | 80c | 162.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed TheMongolz | 63c | 159.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed HOTU | 64c | 156.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed HOTU | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed TheMongolz | 76c | 121.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed HOTU | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…8fe8backed TheMongolz | 62c | 115$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed HOTU | 43c | 114.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HOTU | 18c | 110.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 634 | 45.3%287 W · 347 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed TheMongolz | 57c | 101$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HOTU | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed HOTU | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed HOTU | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed TheMongolz | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…31b6backed TheMongolz | 73c | 94.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed TheMongolz | 12c | 83.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed TheMongolz | 56c | 67.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed HOTU | 30c | 50.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…af9cbacked TheMongolz | 55c | 50.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked TheMongolz | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked TheMongolz | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 833 | 46.2%385 W · 448 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed TheMongolz | 56c | 48.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 741 | 58%430 W · 311 L | -24.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked TheMongolz | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 64%185 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…839abacked TheMongolz | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed TheMongolz | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed TheMongolz | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed TheMongolz | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.