Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Molcan (-1.5) vs Dzumhur (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4508a97eb9b2cd936659a3636774415f814b88fd5abc1d16e3a957cdcf43d81d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dzumhurof Molcan, Dzumhur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd575…e017backed Dzumhur | 41c | 1,754$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.41 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Molcan | 57c | 1,324$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.83 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Dzumhur | 57c | 1,247$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.21 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Molcan | 43c | 1,148$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.57 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Dzumhur | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Molcan | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Molcan | 46c | 544.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Dzumhur | 52c | 505.5$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.63 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Molcan | 43c | 501.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.86 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Dzumhur | 57c | 455.17$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Molcan | 43c | 426.54$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.41 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Molcan | 50c | 357.83$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.45 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Dzumhur | 57c | 350.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed Dzumhur | 58c | 344.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.81 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Molcan | 42c | 344$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 246 | 34.1%84 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Dzumhur | 55c | 267.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 401 | 44.4%178 W · 223 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Molcan | 49c | 202.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 494 | 47.2%233 W · 261 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Molcan | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Dzumhur | 54c | 197.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…51f1backed Molcan | 71c | 194.72$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Dzumhur | 54c | 149.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Dzumhur | 55c | 119.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Molcan | 69c | 101.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Molcan | 45c | 100.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…4261backed Dzumhur | 65c | 75.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Molcan | 35c | 75.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…58e9backed Dzumhur | 57c | 52.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…f838backed Dzumhur | 57c | 48.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…cae1backed Dzumhur | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Molcan | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78fe…df2fbacked Dzumhur | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Dzumhur | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…1734backed Dzumhur | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…c85cbacked Molcan | 70c | 15.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Molcan (-1.5) vs Dzumhur (+1.5)this page
- Croatia Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Alex MolcanDamir Dzumhur won
- Damir Dzumhur vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Dzumhur vs. Molcan: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Dzumhur vs MolcanMolcan won
- Set 2 Winner: Dzumhur vs MolcanDzumhur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.