Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4509251d8b45bc8d9c57551ce5135dcf6c39105b20a4c025d2480eb31a6e0e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 20c | 226.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.04 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 214.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 207.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 199.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 56c | 196.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 65c | 192.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 137.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 122.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 121.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 77c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 27c | 115.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 11c | 110.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 24c | 107.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 37c | 106.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 102.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 98.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 93.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 69c | 91.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed No | 12c | 84.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 60c | 82.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c2…792dbacked Yes | 64c | 78.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 77.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 64c | 60.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 80c | 57.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 55c | 56.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 26c | 55.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 50.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 49.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 68c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 45.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 31c | 42.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed No | 49c | 42.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 41.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 72c | 40.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 54c | 38.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 37.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed Yes | 78c | 34.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 33c | 32.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 32.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 65c | 32.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 31c | 32.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 46c | 32.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…c979backed No | 51c | 31.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 48c | 31.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 48c | 31.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…b95cbacked No | 35c | 30.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 41c | 29.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 28.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…d272backed Yes | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 66c | 25.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 55c | 24.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 54c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 61c | 21.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 78c | 20.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 64c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 70c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…55e8backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…84cfbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…b33bbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.