NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450b960d66e2b114a898d595881656b0acde0bb7c0361b16b47b859ca5908b99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed Over | 52c | 800$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 60c | 692$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 41c | 327.39$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 308.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 41c | 212.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 40c | 193.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Over | 33c | 190$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 56c | 184.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 42c | 179$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Under | 50c | 49.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Over | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 55c | 24.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…f67dbacked Over | 55c | 22.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 5.5this page
- Avalanche vs. WildAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.