MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x452979f90bcac3ccef647c65e0c017e9559ebc3bb538840856bffec42fe1f7be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 2,392$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.76 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed New York Yankees | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 1,489$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.68 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed New York Yankees | 40c | 995.1$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.58 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 40c | 968.86$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.23 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 706.7$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 69c | 600$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed New York Yankees | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed New York Yankees | 40c | 482$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 342.83$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.07 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 323.02$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.9 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 45c | 308.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 298.95$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.53 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 289.28$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 192.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…91fbbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 163.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 157.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed New York Yankees | 39c | 133.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 130.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed New York Yankees | 45c | 127.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 122$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed New York Yankees | 43c | 119.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 23c | 100.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 99.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Yankees | 20c | 95.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 88.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 43c | 71.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…ccc9backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 69.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 67.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked New York Yankees | 26c | 67.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 62.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed New York Yankees | 43c | 57.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba83…4f66backed New York Yankees | 42c | 57.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 56.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 56.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 54.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 50.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked New York Yankees | 23c | 50.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 45.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 45.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 45.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 70c | 43.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Yankees | 45c | 42.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 41.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 36.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed New York Yankees | 41c | 31.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed New York Yankees | 50c | 27.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Yankees | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 21.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…30cfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ae…9ba6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Tampa Bay Rays | 58c | 17.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.