NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Buccaneers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45609b4fe121a675bda7bebd0f9a192ea5a756633a50cb254f57e954fa144add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Buccaneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7c3…a26cbacked Buccaneers | 46c | 20,600$9,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,421.06 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bills | 50c | 14,170$7,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,083.29 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Bills | 66c | 7,150$4,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.78 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…0dccbacked Buccaneers | 50c | 3,700$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Buccaneers | 42c | 2,188$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Buccaneers | 19c | 2,131$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.79 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Bills | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.98 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…3386backed Bills | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Bills | 50c | 1,398$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Bills | 52c | 1,357$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.13 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Buccaneers | 48c | 1,332$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.33 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Buccaneers | 2c | 1,060$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Buccaneers | 50c | 658.83$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…8091backed Buccaneers | 19c | 536.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Buccaneers | 46c | 499.97$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…6e98backed Bills | 52c | 480.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.32 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Buccaneers | 49c | 405.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Buccaneers | 50c | 404$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Buccaneers | 43c | 400$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bills | 51c | 369.12$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.87 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Bills | 53c | 349.9$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Buccaneers | 48c | 301.42$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Buccaneers | 20c | 282.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bills | 70c | 277.3$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Bills | 53c | 271.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Bills | 53c | 261.59$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Buccaneers | 41c | 258.08$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Bills | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…5bddbacked Buccaneers | 45c | 206.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Buccaneers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Buccaneers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Buccaneers | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bills | 51c | 196.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Bills | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Bills | 57c | 176.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…61b1backed Buccaneers | 48c | 138.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bills | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Buccaneers | 31c | 111.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…ff91backed Buccaneers | 49c | 102.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Buccaneers | 48c | 102$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bills | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Buccaneers | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Buccaneers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Buccaneers | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Buccaneers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Bills | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf8…d977backed Buccaneers | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0d9abacked Bills | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Buccaneers | 17c | 71.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Buccaneers | 37c | 69.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Buccaneers | 49c | 65.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Bills | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Bills | 54c | 56.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Bills | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Buccaneers | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Bills | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Buccaneers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Buccaneers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc292…92d8backed Buccaneers | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Bills | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8617…e460backed Buccaneers | 40c | 28.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Bills | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Buccaneers | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Bills | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bills | 56c | 20.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Bills | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.