Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4562f8f4f201181b6f046e4a73bfb80833bda90ec40c4450f3f9fadc11e84130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 507.49$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 37c | 499.96$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 362.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.3 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 326.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 286.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 248.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 247.51$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 192.6$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 26c | 189.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 27c | 161.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 154.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 21c | 139.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 15c | 124.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 123.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 123.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 121.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 115.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 76c | 111.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 30c | 109.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 102.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 26c | 100.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 98.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 69c | 96.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 78c | 94.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 92.48$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…e405backed Yes | 28c | 88.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 85.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 81.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 79.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 29c | 72.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 34c | 69.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 68.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 16c | 65.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 16c | 64.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed Yes | 18c | 62.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 59.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 56.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 78c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 20c | 51.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 79c | 50.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 22c | 49.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 21c | 49.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 76c | 45.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…8baebacked Yes | 27c | 40.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 34.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 29c | 34.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 72c | 31.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 30.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe289…643fbacked No | 73c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 70c | 19.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 69c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 15.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.