TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,216
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,216 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c1,200$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.994,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes79c908.26$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.695,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes43c624.42$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.824,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No5c429.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.322,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c380.66$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No36c377.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.743,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes37c316.6$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes52c300.49$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No80c259.81$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.422,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No20c259.46$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1759121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c243.84$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c239.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.792,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c225.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.51,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c216.6$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.755,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb460…6424backed Yes64c208.46$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.753053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes69c200.8$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes21c192.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.3925519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes67c185.32$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2925549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No55c179.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No46c163.39$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.846,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes15c145.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0990734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes79c139.96$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0644757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x55a1…9379backed Yes18c133.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.192254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes29c132.63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No41c131.45$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.121,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes19c130.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.57,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No72c125.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.212,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes20c117.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes18c107.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.782,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes15c104.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.771,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8025935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5325038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes34c96.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8744536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes69c94.64$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.253083.3%25 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No80c94.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No27c84.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2345162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c95…8188backed Yes26c80$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.049122%20 W · 71 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+359.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No69c77.3$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.621,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No61c75.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No75c75.39$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.894,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No75c72.29$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.864,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes21c70.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.528,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No37c63.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.132,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes53c62.31$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0431062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes17c60.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.491,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No21c57.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes79c56.47$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.861,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No71c52.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710081%81 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes27c52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0272837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.56163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.452,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x530f…424ebacked Yes27c45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes36c42.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.863327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No79c42$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.954060%24 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No38c39.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.891,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No67c39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.981,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607c…aadbbacked No39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes33c35.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5111729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bb…7e81backed No77c32.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251566.7%10 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No67c31.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.431,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.328649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked No60c29.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1823060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c27.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6871464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No77c25.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8722265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes44c23.86$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa792…3ba1backed Yes79c22.78$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked No72c20.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9725946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c20.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9340871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.464960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No65c19.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.949262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No76c17.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c17.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.162,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ee…eea9backed No80c17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65763.2%36 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52e…8f98backed No80c15.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.162638.5%10 W · 16 L-7.2wins-0.28per pick66cpaid-41.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No72c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.825766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No72c14.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3922853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.