Earnings · resolved market
Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459bde2fcf6d0a9fc8f1d1c6665c247a8d82a222c4ff3a68b8c0ace0430856a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc92d…2339backed No | 33c | 4,284$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 17c | 1,631$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.3 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…657abacked Yes | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 77c | 1,106$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.36 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 992$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.91 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 78c | 893.66$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 6c | 725.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.15 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 7cpaid | +324.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcee…0f35backed Yes | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 19c | 439.77$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 6c | 366.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 26c | 339.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 226.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 62c | 207.2$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…bc4ebacked Yes | 79c | 167.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 24c | 161.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed No | 21c | 149.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 16c | 138.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 79c | 108.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…c2d6backed No | 14c | 106.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…578cbacked No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…7970backed Yes | 77c | 81.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 66.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…0d74backed Yes | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe2…f885backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked Yes | 77c | 51.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…b34fbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ca…4472backed Yes | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ed…4de5backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…7ce1backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…14e8backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…2a26backed Yes | 76c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c788backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.