South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459dfdc7172a1f3bfc5d31a0273722fe9a73ed5ab06aed2a82cfeb63715ca1cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CS Ciencianoof CA Mineiro, CS Cienciano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed CA Mineiro | 39c | 9,994$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,892.26 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CS Cienciano | 61c | 9,354$5,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,648.17 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed CA Mineiro | 35c | 2,115$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.67 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked CS Cienciano | 73c | 1,682$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.26 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CA Mineiro | 22c | 1,032$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.47 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CS Cienciano | 67c | 760.31$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed CS Cienciano | 72c | 617$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.44 | 188 | 28.7%54 W · 134 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked CS Cienciano | 62c | 433.31$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.66 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CA Mineiro | 35c | 293.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked CA Mineiro | 35c | 262$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CA Mineiro | 31c | 250.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed CS Cienciano | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked CA Mineiro | 31c | 194$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed CA Mineiro | 24c | 169.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed CS Cienciano | 65c | 165.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed CS Cienciano | 68c | 161.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked CS Cienciano | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed CS Cienciano | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed CA Mineiro | 24c | 138.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CS Cienciano | 61c | 131$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed CA Mineiro | 37c | 94.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed CS Cienciano | 62c | 84.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked CS Cienciano | 65c | 79.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed CS Cienciano | 65c | 76.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed CS Cienciano | 70c | 73.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed CA Mineiro | 23c | 63.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked CS Cienciano | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed CS Cienciano | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed CS Cienciano | 69c | 40.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked CA Mineiro | 37c | 36.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed CS Cienciano | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 103 | 65%67 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-2.5)this page
- CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Mineiro vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Mineiro (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
- Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5)CA Mineiro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.