Tennis · resolved market
Merida Open Akron, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Maria Lourdes Carle
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b42cb1dbbcd48137e1464a88d2232347ae28dc8f9d65a1951c1df8b29113ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timofeevaof Timofeeva, Carle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Carle | 39c | 4,594$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.42 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timofeeva | 69c | 2,344$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.05 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Timofeeva | 61c | 1,812$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.29 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Timofeeva | 61c | 1,616$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.37 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dca…72a5backed Timofeeva | 66c | 1,546$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.54 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Carle | 15c | 1,334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Carle | 41c | 1,230$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.35 | 168 | 30.4%51 W · 117 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Carle | 34c | 600$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Carle | 34c | 474.07$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.41 | 381 | 33.9%129 W · 252 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Timofeeva | 67c | 440.06$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Carle | 31c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Timofeeva | 77c | 383.4$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Timofeeva | 72c | 346$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Carle | 34c | 264.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Carle | 33c | 258$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Carle | 17c | 257.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Carle | 33c | 249.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Carle | 9c | 192.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Timofeeva | 67c | 164.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Carle | 33c | 163.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Timofeeva | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timofeeva | 72c | 148.08$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Timofeeva | 67c | 134.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Carle | 33c | 114.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Timofeeva | 70c | 109$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Timofeeva | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Timofeeva | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Carle | 33c | 90.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f6…a5eebacked Carle | 28c | 89.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 599 | 54.9%329 W · 270 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Carle | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Timofeeva | 69c | 85.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Carle | 19c | 75.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Timofeeva | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Carle | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Timofeeva | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…f397backed Timofeeva | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Carle | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 50.4%272 W · 268 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Timofeeva | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…a871backed Carle | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Carle | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timofeeva | 61c | 36.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…e557backed Timofeeva | 79c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 83 | 74.7%62 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…3630backed Timofeeva | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…e2a2backed Timofeeva | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 197 | 62.9%124 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Timofeeva | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Timofeeva | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Timofeeva | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Timofeeva | 75c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Timofeeva | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.