NFL · resolved market
Cowboys vs. Panthers: O/U 49.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45bbbcebe8da1df886ade6c7f6b3446bab9d1c9494f54461b7a9d359900c8c37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 45c | 10,626$4,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,888.52 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 8,143$4,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,678.3 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 57c | 5,070$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.11 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,900 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 53c | 3,497$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,856.94 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 24c | 1,990$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.98 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 1,820$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.31 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 46c | 1,723$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.04 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 1,521$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.58 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 55c | 1,221$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.48 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…a81ebacked Over | 46c | 1,174$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 2c | 938$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.24 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 53c | 500.01$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.25 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 355$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 42c | 246.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.13 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 54c | 229.41$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Over | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd765…55e4backed Over | 43c | 94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 88.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 83.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…c6bfbacked Over | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9903backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…8e82backed Over | 45c | 44.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 54c | 37.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cowboys vs. Panthers: O/U 49.5this page
- Cowboys vs. PanthersPanthers won
- Cowboys vs. Panthers: O/U 47.5Over won
- Cowboys vs. Panthers: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.