NHL · resolved market
Spread: Bruins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d38c8477e1a701ab6f8ae9a15041ded5163eef682b0ed35bdbc645e1ec46d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Bruins, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc8…2f68backed Sabres | 71c | 1,249$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.24 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Bruins | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Bruins | 30c | 401.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.76 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Sabres | 70c | 220.59$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bruins | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Sabres | 69c | 138$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…abbbbacked Sabres | 71c | 93.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Bruins | 29c | 93.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Sabres | 71c | 80.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…32f8backed Bruins | 30c | 47.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Bruins | 28c | 46.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sabres | 79c | 18.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Sabres | 72c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. BruinsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.