Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d83e76148ebfe845fdf3524067d342243eaa4b2cdc5a2594b71af63fc85ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 566.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 528.35$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 458.39$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 435.03$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.65 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 344.27$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 45c | 243.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 76c | 186.79$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 70c | 160.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 62c | 158.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 151.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 140.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 55c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 15c | 108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 107$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked Yes | 61c | 106.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 66c | 106.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 51c | 103.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 16c | 78.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 71c | 74.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 74.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 71.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed No | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 62.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 58c | 60.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 56.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 50.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…c010backed No | 21c | 47.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 45.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…9615backed No | 46c | 43.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 56c | 43.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 56c | 42.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 49c | 40.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 39.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 66c | 38.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 52c | 37.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 42c | 35.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 33.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 46c | 33.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 47c | 31.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 61c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 62c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 22.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 21.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 58c | 21.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 16.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 63c | 16.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.