MLB · resolved market
Yankees vs. Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45f8f754fa7c9dd56ee0abd0340eb797f96e3d3687e06aee95e4dd95e06e2ae7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oriolesof Yankees, Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yankees | 49c | 24,805$12,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,145.99 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Orioles | 52c | 13,091$6,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,316.98 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles | 60c | 11,643$6,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,664.95 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…5781backed Yankees | 49c | 5,114$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Orioles | 79c | 4,416$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.18 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles | 51c | 3,525$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.27 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles | 60c | 3,159$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.87 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Orioles | 51c | 2,688$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.89 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Yankees | 21c | 2,507$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.32 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles | 51c | 1,691$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.19 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yankees | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Orioles | 57c | 1,472$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Yankees | 52c | 1,055$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.3 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yankees | 49c | 1,000$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.05 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Orioles | 51c | 980$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.2 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…e5ecbacked Yankees | 18c | 955.55$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Orioles | 63c | 922.16$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.6 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Orioles | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.12 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yankees | 6c | 580$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Yankees | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yankees | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yankees | 26c | 506.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Orioles | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Orioles | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Orioles | 51c | 485$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.65 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…3d89backed Yankees | 35c | 461.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Orioles | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.05 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Orioles | 55c | 385$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.02 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yankees | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Orioles | 63c | 346.88$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.18 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yankees | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Orioles | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…9ca0backed Yankees | 48c | 265.29$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Orioles | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Orioles | 51c | 175$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Yankees | 48c | 158.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Yankees | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Orioles | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yankees | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Orioles | 65c | 135.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…01b6backed Yankees | 48c | 111.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles | 48c | 104.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yankees | 55c | 101.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yankees | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Orioles | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Yankees | 22c | 93.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yankees | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Orioles | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yankees | 49c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yankees | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Orioles | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Orioles | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…988dbacked Yankees | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Yankees | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Orioles | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c77…bde7backed Orioles | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Orioles | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.