MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46046f54236fb73556c848a2d3c117b081431765e23de91b01870d63804e8bd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 472.84$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 367.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 310$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 246.1$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.11 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 218.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.61 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals | 80c | 165.82$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 82.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 78.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 65.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 52.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 50.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed St. Louis Cardinals | 32c | 44.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 39.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 38.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.