MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49938d252aa03a91172cffaeb592c57085ecb188348fbf41d0cd41be2b612dbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 49c | 3,973$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.06 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 1,562$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.21 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.98 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 931.72$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.49 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 897.99$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 55c | 707.64$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.2 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 616.17$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.72 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 48c | 593.69$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.72 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 48c | 504.58$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.38 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 52c | 448.36$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.59 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 48c | 403.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 48c | 268.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 54c | 259.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Over | 48c | 212.17$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 49c | 211.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8af4backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 51c | 154.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 153.58$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 57c | 142.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Over | 47c | 122.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 47c | 103.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 36c | 97.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 96.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 45c | 94.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 54.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked Over | 46c | 49.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Over | 45c | 44.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Over | 48c | 42.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 52c | 42.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d3…98e5backed Over | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 45c | 38.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 37.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Over | 48c | 37.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 31.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 28.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 40c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 66c | 27.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…6a8ebacked Under | 55c | 24.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 48c | 24.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 53c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…dd35backed Over | 48c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 61c | 21.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 20.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e6…454ebacked Under | 62c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.