MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460a96bb1560ed20d66ee2fc2dbec9629e19a81d84d75184d0a41d15459023f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 51c | 700.23$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 50c | 698.96$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.48 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 51c | 518.69$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 346 | 50.9%176 W · 170 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 49c | 407.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 245$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Yes | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 48c | 131.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 48c | 91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…1b25backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…7ab9backed Yes | 50c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.