MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73df1750c304a75a535107d76be71075fdf1ed63d3aa332e26259a6d4f421e19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 46c | 86,110$39,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,824.29 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 44,705$24,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,605 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 29,397$17,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,748.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 8,120$4,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,978.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 7,521$3,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,534.21 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 6,750$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,285.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 47c | 6,300$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 5,246$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,428.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 5,166$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,416.71 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 2,100$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 2,048$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.32 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 1,999$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.28 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 44c | 1,300$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 1,125$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 976.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 53c | 962$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.14 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Under | 53c | 647.17$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.17 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 45c | 643.38$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.52 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 512.07$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 54c | 398.15$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 19c | 212.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 29c | 203.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 49c | 201.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 34c | 149.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked Over | 48c | 148.15$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…ed19backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 61c | 113.39$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 54c | 109.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Over | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 49c | 99.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 58c | 85.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…7d20backed Over | 39c | 59.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 78c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Under | 55c | 56.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 49c | 43.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Under | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Under | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 58c | 36.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 71c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 49c | 26.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Under | 55c | 23.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 49c | 22.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c8…b64bbacked Under | 56c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Under | 55c | 18.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee BrewersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.